The situation in the last few hours has evolved very quickly, so a substantial update is necessary.
Contagion: The situation in China
Contagion data from China has increased dramatically in the past few hours. As already mentioned, the figures did not change.
As can be seen from the graph below, the increase in cases is proportional both in terms of infected patients and deaths. Mortality remains around 20%.
As for the cases concluded, out of 7,000 patients, 82% survived while 18% died. This is one of the reasons for the enormous concern taking place in China.
As can be seen from these two tables, the increase in cases is proportional both in terms of infected patients and deaths. Mortality remains unchanged around 20%, as does the number of critically ill patients compared to the total number of patients with symptoms.
In temporal terms, however, the two graphs of the number of infected patients and deaths have an almost superimposable trend, in progressive expansion.
How are cases currently counted?
The asymptomatic cases, or those that are positive of the virus but are not showing symptoms, are not counted. Only people who have SYMPTOMS are now considered actual cases. This means that the probable number of total cases is much higher than reported.
Why don’t they count asymptomatic cases?
Probably because they no longer have the ability to test all suspect cases. The numbers lead us to imagine that there is no availability and therefore no reason to test asymptomatic people. The quarantine is carried out in a systematic way in the most affected provinces. When the symptoms occur, the person is forced away from his (domestic) environment and is confined in collection centers with symptomatic patients, where less severe patients are guaranteed to be provided basic care. Patients who have more severe cases are taken to real hospitals, where the intensity of care is slightly better.
As you can imagine, mortality is high because it is not possible to guarantee a high level of assistance to everyone infected by the virus in China.
The current situation
In Hubei, they hope to destroy the virus by total disinfestation of the whole city including the streets and even the air itself. The particles of disinfectants sprayed on the streets are gradually looking like milky whitish snakes.
In the other regions of China, the contagion is fought with the total blockade of activities, from schools to universities to factories. It is hoped that this form of containment will be sufficient and it will not become necessary to resort to even more drastic measures, as what happened in the province of Hubei.
Contagion: the situation in the rest of the world
Beyond China, the countries currently affected by the infection are Japan on the front line, especially due to the situation of the Diamond Princess ship where dozens of cases have occurred and which is currently still in quarantine.
The situation in Italy: the infections
In our country, a few cases of contagion have occurred so far. There are three official cases, while there are many suspect cases, all so far related to people from China or who have had contact with China. These cases are systematically monitored and tested for Coronavirus.
International institutions have now expressed themselves clearly: for the WHO, the threat posed by Coronavirus has become more serious than that of international terrorism. WHO already recommends international collaboration in emergency management, which is likely to take on even greater contours, in the hope that it will be quickly curbed.
We summarize the current therapeutic developments in the following links to our articles
Marco De Nardin M.D.