Coronavirus: Are the figures reliable?

Coronavirus: Are the figures reliable?

  • The cases of infections up to February 12 are decreasing compared to previous days.
  • In regions outside Wuhan, mortality is low at exactly 0.17%.
  • Markets no longer fear the coronavirus

So what does this mean? Is it all okay?

Mortality data

The total mortality of the virus is still attested at around 2%. Cases outside the province of Hubei have a mortality of 0.17% because they are in countries that are able to devote a large amount of resources in dealing with each individual cases. Mortality in the Wuhan region is around 20%, as can be seen from these data:

New information


Longer than expected incubation?

China Global Times has described the case of a patient who had no symptoms for 17 days and was later diagnosed as Coronavirus infected. Zhong Nanshan is another Chinese epidemiologist known for doing important work in managing the SARS epidemic in 2003. He had sent an article in which he stresses that the incubation period could go up to 24 days, and not 14 as so far noted. If the study is judged correct by the scholars who must verify it, international prevention protocols may need to be reviewed. 

A German study has shown that some types of Coronavirus are able to resist on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days. However, they are very easy to inactivate: diluted bleach, alcohol, alcohol-based disinfectant gels can easily destroy it. We point out that in the study, which we report below, the current Coronavirus was not studied, however, it is likely that what applies to the Coronaviruses mentioned above also applies to the Coronavirus n2019.


The alarm of many experts

Many experts raise various voices out of the chorus that creates the alarm:

  • A molecular virologist at the University of Hong Kong, Jin Dong-Yan, said on February 10 that he believes it is far too late to contain the Coronavirus epidemic. As many as 5 million people left the city of Wuhan between 10 and 24 January bringing the virus with them all over the world. Many of them will not even be able to return to Wuhan, as the city is banned and quarantined.
  • On February 10, the WHO Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, wrote on Twitter that “the identification of a limited number of cases in other countries may indicate a more widespread transmission. In other words, we would be witnessing the tip of the iceberg. The spread of the new Coronavirus outside of China now appears slow, but could accelerate.
  • Neil Ferguson, director of the Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis of Imperial College London has created a mathematical model together with his team that describes how the current spread of the virus cannot be explained by an infected number of 50 on January 18, but only with 2000 of them infected on 18 January. Still, according to their mathematical model, they are quite sure that the data provided by the Chinese government are completely underestimated, at least 10 times, both in terms of full-blown cases and deaths. In their opinion, it would, therefore, be a much more widespread disease than the Chinese government would have us believe.


 The medical opinion

At present we cannot make any kind of forecast. Unfortunately, we believe that it does not make sense to blindly rely on the data provided by the Chinese government, which has already proven to be unreliable as they have silenced and imprisoned a colleague of ours who had raised the alarm and who then lost his life for it. The truth is that we do not have realistic data on what is happening in China. As for the rest of the world, however, the data are reliable, but the potential lack of effectiveness of the test in verifying positivity to the virus and the insidious attitude of this disease could still hide a significant threat for everyone.

It is still necessary to be on the alert; not to let your guard down; to contain the virus to the maximum; and not to underestimate it, because it is not just a Chinese problem but everyone’s problem.


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